Former Senator Alan Simpson has arguably done more to address our fiscal problems than anyone else in the last three years. He was co-chairman of the president’s deficit-reduction committee, commonly known as the Simpson-Bowles budget plan. He has travelled the nation talking with groups, large and small, about our nation’s fiscal problems.
Recently, he appeared on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and was talking about the fiscal cliff:
There’s a group out there that doesn’t give a damn about Republicans or Democrats or the president, and it’s the people we owe $16 trillion to. Half of that is owned by private people — people in New York or Cody, Wyoming. The other half is owned by feds, and half of that is owned by China.
Now, hold on just a moment! I know that is in vogue to say that China is our largest creditor, but let’s try something unusual. Let’s try getting some the facts out in the open.
China doesn’t own a quarter of our debt. It doesn’t even own 10%. When the latest data comes out, it probably won’t even be the largest foreign creditor. (That will likely be Japan!) Actually, China has been a net seller of Treasuries for almost two years.
So, who does own our $16 trillion national debt? Here are the figures as of June 2012 (the most recent month for which data is available):
So, why all the fuss about China when no one seems to care about Japan?
China, as mentioned, has been a net seller of Treasuries since 2011. In May 2011, China held $1.31 trillion in Treasuries — $200 billion more than it owns today.
Many have asked in panicked tones what will happen to interest rates when China stops buying our debt. The answer: It already has. And, yet the world goes on in spite of the facts. And what’s more, interest rates are at all-time lows.
Some will counter that the only reason interest rates are low is that the Federal Reserve is buying all the new debt — right?
The answer is: sort of, but there are misconceptions here, too.
The Fed has purchased a lot of Treasuries over the last few years, but that was after it slashed its holdings in late 2008 to make room on its balance sheet for emergency programs to stabilize the financial system.
Since 2002, the Fed’s holdings of Treasuries have increased by $1 trillion, or 10.8% of the new debt issued during that time.
So who has purchased the $9.3 trillion in new debt issued over the last decade? Pulling from several different sources, here’s what I came up with:
The fact that we rely on foreign investors to finance 44% of our annual deficit is, to put it lightly, not ideal. The kindness of strangers doesn’t last forever.
But what’s more dangerous than a massive mountain of national debt?
Lies, exaggerations and misconceptions about that debt.